Estadio Hernando Siles · Referee I. N. Mendez Chavez · Analysis updated 06:40 UTC
The Strongest vs Real Tomayapo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for The Strongest and 1.25 for Real Tomayapo, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives The Strongest the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
The Strongest win
56.4% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
The Strongest home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Tomayapo away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–07.5%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
The Strongest
- 2026-10-01T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Oriente Petrolero · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Guabirá · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T21:15:00.000Z · A vs ABB · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Oruro · 5-0 (W)
Real Tomayapo
- 2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oruro · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Always Ready · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Potosí · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-24T00:00:00.000Z · The Strongest 0-0 Real Tomayapo (Primera División)
- 2025-12-12T00:15:00.000Z · The Strongest 0-1 Real Tomayapo (Primera División)
- 2025-07-27T21:15:00.000Z · The Strongest 3-3 Real Tomayapo (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2025-07-12T21:30:00.000Z · The Strongest 6-0 Real Tomayapo (Primera División)
- 2025-04-30T22:00:00.000Z · The Strongest 5-0 Real Tomayapo (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2024-12-10T23:00:00.000Z · The Strongest 2-0 Real Tomayapo (Primera División)
- 2024-08-18T19:00:00.000Z · The Strongest 0-2 Real Tomayapo (Primera División)
- 2024-03-14T00:00:00.000Z · The Strongest 0-2 Real Tomayapo (Primera División)
- 2024-03-02T19:00:00.000Z · The Strongest 2-1 Real Tomayapo (Primera División)
- 2023-08-06T21:30:00.000Z · The Strongest 0-0 Real Tomayapo (Primera División)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolívar | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 51 |
| 2 | Always Ready | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 35 | 48 |
| 3 | The Strongest | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 45 |
| 4 | Real Potosí | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 15 | 38 |
| 5 | Oriente Petrolero | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 34 |
| 6 | Aurora | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 |
| 7 | Guabirá | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -10 | 30 |
| 8 | Blooming | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 28 |
| 9 | Nacional Potosí | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 28 |
| 10 | Real Oruro | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Independiente Petrolero | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -10 | 26 |
| 12 | Universitario de Vinto | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -14 | 21 |
| 13 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -20 | 21 |
| 14 | ABB | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -16 | 20 |
| 15 | Real Tomayapo | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -23 | 20 |
| 16 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -14 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is The Strongest win, at 56.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.