Estadio Hernando Siles · Referee L. Villarroel · Analysis updated 06:51 UTC
The Strongest vs Universitario de Vinto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for The Strongest and 1.00 for Universitario de Vinto, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives The Strongest the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
The Strongest win
59.5% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
The Strongest home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Universitario de Vinto away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.2%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–06.5%
Recent form
The Strongest
- 2026-10-01T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Oriente Petrolero · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Guabirá · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T21:15:00.000Z · A vs ABB · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Oruro · 5-0 (W)
Universitario de Vinto
- 2026-10-17T21:15:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Oruro · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Oriente Petrolero · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · A vs The Strongest · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guabirá · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-09T22:30:00.000Z · The Strongest 2-1 Universitario de Vinto (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2026-08-21T22:30:00.000Z · The Strongest 4-3 Universitario de Vinto (Primera División)
- 2026-04-05T21:15:00.000Z · The Strongest 2-1 Universitario de Vinto (Primera División)
- 2025-12-04T22:00:00.000Z · The Strongest 1-0 Universitario de Vinto (Primera División)
- 2025-06-29T23:30:00.000Z · The Strongest 3-2 Universitario de Vinto (Primera División)
- 2025-02-20T21:00:00.000Z · The Strongest 0-3 Universitario de Vinto (Torneo Amistoso de Verano)
- 2025-02-14T23:00:00.000Z · The Strongest 1-1 Universitario de Vinto (Torneo Amistoso de Verano)
- 2024-10-26T19:00:00.000Z · The Strongest 4-2 Universitario de Vinto (Primera División)
- 2024-07-14T00:00:00.000Z · The Strongest 1-0 Universitario de Vinto (Primera División)
- 2024-04-28T20:00:00.000Z · The Strongest 1-2 Universitario de Vinto (Primera División)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolívar | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 51 |
| 2 | Always Ready | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 35 | 48 |
| 3 | The Strongest | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 45 |
| 4 | Real Potosí | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 15 | 38 |
| 5 | Oriente Petrolero | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 34 |
| 6 | Aurora | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 |
| 7 | Guabirá | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -10 | 30 |
| 8 | Blooming | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 28 |
| 9 | Nacional Potosí | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 28 |
| 10 | Real Oruro | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Independiente Petrolero | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -10 | 26 |
| 12 | Universitario de Vinto | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -14 | 21 |
| 13 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -20 | 21 |
| 14 | ABB | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -16 | 20 |
| 15 | Real Tomayapo | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -23 | 20 |
| 16 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -14 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is The Strongest win, at 59.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.