· Analysis updated 07:32 UTC
Thes Sport vs K. Lierse S.K. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Thes Sport and 2.05 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives K. Lierse S.K. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
K. Lierse S.K. win
65.8% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thes Sport home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
K. Lierse S.K. away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.9%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–38.1%
Recent form
Thes Sport
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Zelzate · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Roeselare Daisel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heist · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Knokke · 2-0 (W)
K. Lierse S.K.
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rochefort · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Beerschot VA · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Liège · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Seraing United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Patro Eisden · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · Thes Sport 1-1 K. Lierse S.K. (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-07-31T17:30:00.000Z · Thes Sport 1-1 K. Lierse S.K. (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-07-26T17:30:00.000Z · Thes Sport 0-4 K. Lierse S.K. (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · Thes Sport 2-6 K. Lierse S.K. (Cup)
- 2020-02-29T19:00:00.000Z · Thes Sport 0-1 K. Lierse S.K. (First Amateur Division)
- 2019-12-07T18:30:00.000Z · Thes Sport 2-0 K. Lierse S.K. (First Amateur Division)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is K. Lierse S.K. win, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.