Gemeentelijk Sportpark · Analysis updated 17:52 UTC
Thes Sport vs Mandel United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Thes Sport and 1.26 for Mandel United, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Thes Sport the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.9% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thes Sport home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mandel United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thes Sport to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 25% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Thes Sport and 1.26 for Mandel United, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Thes Sport
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Zelzate · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Roeselare Daisel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heist · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Knokke · 2-0 (W)
Mandel United
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Zelzate · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Merelbeke · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Spouwen-Mopertingen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Houtvenne · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Hasselt · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rochefort | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Meux | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | RWDM | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Tubize | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Olympic Charleroi | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 12 |
| 9 | Sporting Charleroi II | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.