Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma · Analysis updated 09:58 UTC
Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Roasso Kumamoto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Thespakusatsu Gunma and 1.70 for Roasso Kumamoto, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Roasso Kumamoto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Roasso Kumamoto win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thespakusatsu Gunma home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Roasso Kumamoto away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Roasso Kumamoto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 20% / 24% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Thespakusatsu Gunma and 1.70 for Roasso Kumamoto, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.6%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–210.7%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.4%
Recent form
Thespakusatsu Gunma
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ryukyu · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Ehime FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Roasso Kumamoto · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kochi United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Renofa Yamaguchi · 0-2 (L)
Roasso Kumamoto
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Parceiro Nagano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gainare Tottori · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagamihara · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 29 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 26 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 26 |
| 4 | Osaka | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Roasso Kumamoto | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 6 | Nara Club | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 23 |
| 7 | FC Gifu | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 22 |
| 8 | Sagamihara | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 9 | FC Ryukyu | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 10 | Kanazawa | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 11 | Parceiro Nagano | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Kitakyushu | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 | Gainare Tottori | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 15 |
| 14 | Fukushima United | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -3 | 14 |
| 15 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 16 | Tochigi SC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 17 | Biwako Shiga | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 14 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -10 | 8 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -23 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Roasso Kumamoto win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.