Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma · Analysis updated 12:21 UTC
Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Sagamihara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Thespakusatsu Gunma and 1.84 for Sagamihara, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Sagamihara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sagamihara win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thespakusatsu Gunma home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sagamihara away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
Thespakusatsu Gunma
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ryukyu · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Ehime FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Roasso Kumamoto · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kochi United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Renofa Yamaguchi · 0-2 (L)
Sagamihara
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Osaka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Renofa Yamaguchi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kitakyushu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Parceiro Nagano · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-4 Sagamihara (J3 League)
- 2026-05-23T05:00:00.000Z · Thespakusatsu Gunma 7-2 Sagamihara (J2/J3 League)
- 2026-03-04T09:30:00.000Z · Thespakusatsu Gunma 0-5 Sagamihara (J2/J3 League)
- 2025-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-1 Sagamihara (J3 League)
- 2025-04-13T05:00:00.000Z · Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-1 Sagamihara (J3 League)
- 2024-03-06T10:00:00.000Z · Thespakusatsu Gunma 4-1 Sagamihara (J-League Cup)
- 2021-11-07T10:00:00.000Z · Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-1 Sagamihara (J2 League)
- 2021-03-07T04:00:00.000Z · Thespakusatsu Gunma 0-0 Sagamihara (J2 League)
- 2019-09-07T08:00:00.000Z · Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-0 Sagamihara (J3 League)
- 2019-03-17T04:00:00.000Z · Thespakusatsu Gunma 2-1 Sagamihara (J3 League)
J3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 29 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 26 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | FC Gifu | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Sagamihara | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Osaka | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 9 | Parceiro Nagano | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | FC Ryukyu | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Kanazawa | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 | Biwako Shiga | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Gainare Tottori | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Tochigi SC | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 16 | Kitakyushu | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 13 |
| 17 | Fukushima United | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 8 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -23 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sagamihara win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.