· Analysis updated 16:50 UTC
Thimphu City vs Paro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Thimphu City and 2.93 for Paro, a combined total of 4.78. That distribution gives Paro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Paro win
59.9% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 2.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thimphu City home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 23% / 17% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Thimphu City and 2.93 for Paro, a combined 4.78 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 85% and both teams to score at 80%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–26.7%
- 1–36.5%
- 2–26.2%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–44.8%
Recent form
Thimphu City
- 2026-10-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Paro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Transport United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bhutan U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ugyen Academy · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs RTC · 2-1 (W)
Paro
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paro | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 62 | 49 |
| 2 | Thimphu City | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 40 |
| 3 | Thimphu | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 32 |
| 4 | Transport United | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | RTC | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 28 |
| 6 | Drukpa | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Bhutan U19 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -16 | 20 |
| 8 | Tsirang | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -21 | 16 |
| 9 | Tensung | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | -39 | 8 |
| 10 | Ugyen Academy | 18 | 2 | 1 | 15 | -46 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paro win, at 59.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.