· Analysis updated 17:11 UTC
Thimphu vs Transport United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Thimphu and 1.10 for Transport United, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Thimphu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.2% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thimphu home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Transport United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thimphu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 27% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Thimphu and 1.10 for Transport United, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–08.3%
Recent form
Thimphu
- 2026-09-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Tsirang · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Drukpa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Transport United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RTC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-28T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Paro · 0-2 (L)
Transport United
- 2026-09-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Thimphu City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs RTC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Paro · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bhutan U19 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Thimphu · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paro | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 62 | 49 |
| 2 | Thimphu City | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 40 |
| 3 | Thimphu | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 32 |
| 4 | Transport United | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | RTC | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 28 |
| 6 | Drukpa | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Bhutan U19 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -16 | 20 |
| 8 | Tsirang | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -21 | 16 |
| 9 | Tensung | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | -39 | 8 |
| 10 | Ugyen Academy | 18 | 2 | 1 | 15 | -46 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.