Thionville Lusitanos vs Bourges Foot 18 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Thionville Lusitanos and 1.07 for Bourges Foot 18, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Thionville Lusitanos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.07

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Thionville Lusitanos home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bourges Foot 18 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thionville Lusitanos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 28% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Thionville Lusitanos and 1.07 for Bourges Foot 18, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Thionville Lusitanos win41%

Draw28%

Bourges Foot 18 win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.1%
1–012.3%
0–110.5%
0–09.9%
2–18.2%

Recent form

Thionville Lusitanos

2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Puy Foot · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs La Roche VF · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Fleury 91 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Rouen · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Concarneau · 2-2 (D)

Bourges Foot 18

2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyon Duchere · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fréjus St-Raphaël · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Canet Roussillon · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chasselay MDA · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Toulon · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National 2 - Group B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Angoulême	7	5	2	0	7	17
2	Bayonne	7	5	1	1	6	16
3	Avranches	7	4	2	1	7	14
4	Lorient II	7	4	0	3	6	12
5	Granville	7	3	2	2	0	11
6	Dinan Léhon	7	3	2	2	0	11
7	Saint-Malo	7	3	2	2	3	11
8	Stade Briochin	7	2	4	1	2	10
9	Le Poiré sur Vie	7	3	0	4	-1	9
10	Tarbes	7	2	3	2	-1	9
11	Saint-Colomban Locminé	7	2	2	3	0	8
12	Les Herbiers	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Saumur	7	2	1	4	-5	7
14	Pontivy GSI	7	0	4	3	-5	4
15	Châteaubriant	7	0	4	3	-7	4
16	Chauray	7	0	1	6	-10	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.