Stadium Plaine · Analysis updated 08:26 UTC
Thionville Lusitanos vs Chambly Thelle FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Thionville Lusitanos and 1.42 for Chambly Thelle FC, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Chambly Thelle FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thionville Lusitanos home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chambly Thelle FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chambly Thelle FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 34% / 26% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Thionville Lusitanos and 1.42 for Chambly Thelle FC, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Thionville Lusitanos
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Puy Foot · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs La Roche VF · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Fleury 91 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Rouen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Concarneau · 2-2 (D)
Chambly Thelle FC
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Colmar · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs St Maur Lusitanos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bastia-Borgo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Colombes 92 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Haguenau · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 2 - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angoulême | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Bayonne | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Avranches | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Lorient II | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Granville | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinan Léhon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Saint-Malo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Stade Briochin | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Le Poiré sur Vie | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Tarbes | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Saint-Colomban Locminé | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Les Herbiers | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Saumur | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | Pontivy GSI | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Châteaubriant | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | Chauray | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.