Yangon United Sports Complex · Analysis updated 08:29 UTC
Thitsar Arman vs Ayeyawady United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Thitsar Arman and 1.60 for Ayeyawady United, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Ayeyawady United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thitsar Arman home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ayeyawady United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 37% / 24% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Thitsar Arman and 1.60 for Ayeyawady United, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–17.0%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Thitsar Arman
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hantharwady United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Myawady · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-17T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yarmanya United · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-03-09T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Dagon · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs I.S.P.E · 2-1 (W)
Ayeyawady United
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dagon · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs I.S.P.E · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-17T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sagaing United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Yarmanya United · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-03-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yadanarbon · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dagon | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 |
| 2 | Yangon Royals | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Shan United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 4 | Yadanarbon | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Yangon United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Thitsar Arman | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | I.S.P.E | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Sagaing United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Hantharwady United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | Ayeyawady United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 11 | GFA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 12 | Myawady | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.