Yangon United Sports Complex · Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Thitsar Arman vs Hantharwady United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Thitsar Arman and 1.22 for Hantharwady United, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Thitsar Arman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Thitsar Arman win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thitsar Arman home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hantharwady United away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
Thitsar Arman
- 2026-10-25T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Dagon · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T09:00:00.000Z · H vs I.S.P.E · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayeyawady United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hantharwady United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Myawady · 2-2 (D)
Hantharwady United
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Yadanarbon · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Shan United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Thitsar Arman · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Dagon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Shan United · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · Thitsar Arman 2-2 Hantharwady United (National League)
- 2026-01-11T09:00:00.000Z · Thitsar Arman 1-2 Hantharwady United (National League)
- 2025-08-24T09:00:00.000Z · Thitsar Arman 0-0 Hantharwady United (National League)
- 2025-02-03T09:00:00.000Z · Thitsar Arman 1-0 Hantharwady United (National League)
- 2024-07-14T09:30:00.000Z · Thitsar Arman 0-1 Hantharwady United (National League)
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dagon | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Yangon Royals | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Yadanarbon | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Shan United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Yangon United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Thitsar Arman | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | GFA | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | I.S.P.E | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Hantharwady United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | Sagaing United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 11 | Ayeyawady United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 12 | Myawady | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Thitsar Arman win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.