VÍS völlurinn · Analysis updated 16:10 UTC
Thór / KA W vs Thróttur Reykjavík W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Thór / KA W and 2.00 for Thróttur Reykjavík W, a combined total of 3.42. That distribution gives Thróttur Reykjavík W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Thróttur Reykjavík W win
51.1% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thróttur Reykjavík W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thróttur Reykjavík W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 27% / 22% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Thór / KA W and 2.00 for Thróttur Reykjavík W, a combined 3.42 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–26.6%
- 2–16.6%
- 0–26.6%
Recent form
Thór / KA W
Thróttur Reykjavík W
- 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Valur W · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stjarnan W · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FH W · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Breidablik W · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Víkingur Reykjavík W · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Úrvalsdeild Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Breidablik W | 17 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 46 |
| 2 | FH W | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 38 |
| 3 | Thróttur Reykjavík W | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 36 |
| 4 | Valur W | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
| 5 | Víkingur Reykjavík W | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 25 |
| 6 | Stjarnan W | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | -5 | 25 |
| 7 | Thór / KA W | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -10 | 21 |
| 8 | Fram W | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -19 | 21 |
| 9 | Tindastóll W | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -22 | 17 |
| 10 | Fjard / Hött / Leiknir W | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | -45 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Thróttur Reykjavík W win, at 51.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.