Throttur Reykjavik vs Fylkir Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Throttur Reykjavik and 1.43 for Fylkir, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Throttur Reykjavik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Throttur Reykjavik win

53.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.10 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Throttur Reykjavik home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fylkir away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Throttur Reykjavik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 21% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Throttur Reykjavik and 1.43 for Fylkir, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Throttur Reykjavik win53%

Draw21%

Fylkir win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

2–19.3%
1–18.8%
2–26.6%
2–06.5%
3–16.5%

Recent form

Throttur Reykjavik

2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Fylkir · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Njardvik · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Njardvik · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vestri · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Ægir · 7-2 (W)

Fylkir

2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Throttur Reykjavik · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T19:15:00.000Z · H vs HK Kopavogur · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-09T19:15:00.000Z · A vs HK Kopavogur · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs HK Kopavogur · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Grotta · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Deild table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Afturelding	22	14	3	5	32	45
2	Throttur Reykjavik	22	13	4	5	25	43
3	Fylkir	22	13	1	8	13	40
4	HK Kopavogur	22	12	2	8	12	38
5	Njardvik	22	12	2	8	9	38
6	Leiknir R.	22	8	4	10	1	28
7	IR Reykjavik	22	8	4	10	-6	28
8	Grotta	22	8	3	11	-7	27
9	Vestri	22	8	3	11	-13	27
10	Völsungur	22	7	5	10	-12	26
11	Grindavik	22	5	10	7	-10	25
12	Ægir	22	2	3	17	-44	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Throttur Reykjavik win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.