AVIS völlurinn · Analysis updated 10:40 UTC
Thróttur Reykjavík W vs Valur W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for Thróttur Reykjavík W and 1.19 for Valur W, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Thróttur Reykjavík W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Thróttur Reykjavík W win
49.2% probability
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thróttur Reykjavík W home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thróttur Reykjavík W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.69 goals for Thróttur Reykjavík W and 1.19 for Valur W, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–26.7%
Recent form
Thróttur Reykjavík W
- 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Valur W · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stjarnan W · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FH W · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Breidablik W · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Víkingur Reykjavík W · 3-2 (W)
Valur W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Úrvalsdeild Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Breidablik W | 17 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 46 |
| 2 | FH W | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 38 |
| 3 | Thróttur Reykjavík W | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 36 |
| 4 | Valur W | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
| 5 | Víkingur Reykjavík W | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 25 |
| 6 | Stjarnan W | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | -5 | 25 |
| 7 | Thór / KA W | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -10 | 21 |
| 8 | Fram W | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -19 | 21 |
| 9 | Tindastóll W | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -22 | 17 |
| 10 | Fjard / Hött / Leiknir W | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | -45 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Thróttur Reykjavík W win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.