· Analysis updated 02:19 UTC
Thróttur Vogar vs Selfoss Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Thróttur Vogar and 2.08 for Selfoss, a combined total of 3.92. That distribution gives Selfoss the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Selfoss or Draw
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.9%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–27.3%
- 2–17.0%
- 1–35.5%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Selfoss to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 35% / 21% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Thróttur Vogar and 2.08 for Selfoss, a combined 3.92 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 74%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Model confidence
Selfoss or Draw is the headline pick at 65% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Thróttur Vogar
Selfoss
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Deild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haukar | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 38 |
| 2 | Selfoss | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 32 |
| 3 | Kári | 17 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 29 |
| 4 | Fjolnir | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 25 |
| 5 | Vikingur Olafsiik | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 25 |
| 6 | Kormákur / Hvöt | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 24 |
| 7 | Dalvík / Reynir | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | -3 | 21 |
| 8 | Magni | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 21 |
| 9 | Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 20 |
| 10 | Thróttur Vogar | 17 | 6 | 1 | 10 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Hvíti riddarinn | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | -11 | 16 |
| 12 | KFG | 17 | 4 | 1 | 12 | -29 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.