· Analysis updated 14:43 UTC
Thun II vs Grasshopper II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.26 expected goals for Thun II and 1.96 for Grasshopper II, a combined total of 4.22. That distribution gives Thun II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Thun II win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
2.26 – 1.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thun II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grasshopper II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thun II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 20% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.26 goals for Thun II and 1.96 for Grasshopper II, a combined 4.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.5%
- 1–26.4%
- 3–15.5%
Recent form
Thun II
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Muttenz · 5-6 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bassecourt · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Schötz · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Wohlen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Black Stars · 2-2 (D)
Grasshopper II
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zug · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Solothurn · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Muttenz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bassecourt · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Amical Saint-Prex · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Classic - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Langenthal | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Schötz | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Courtételle | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Concordia Basel | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Delémont | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Muttenz | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Solothurn | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
| 8 | Grasshopper II | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 | Buochs | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Muri-Gümligen | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Thun II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | FC Wohlen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Bassecourt | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 10 |
| 14 | Zug | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 | Black Stars | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Münsingen | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Thun II win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.