Thun II vs Münsingen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Thun II and 1.15 for Münsingen, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Thun II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Thun II win

67.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.53 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Thun II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Münsingen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Thun II win67%

Draw17%

Münsingen win16%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

2–19.3%
2–08.1%
3–17.8%
1–17.4%
3–06.8%

Recent form

Thun II

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Muttenz · 5-6 (L)
2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bassecourt · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Schötz · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Wohlen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Black Stars · 2-2 (D)

Münsingen

2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Muttenz · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bassecourt · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Schötz · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Thun II · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Black Stars · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · Thun II 4-1 Münsingen (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
2025-02-18T19:00:00.000Z · Thun II 0-2 Münsingen (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
2024-08-03T16:00:00.000Z · Thun II 1-1 Münsingen (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
2024-03-03T13:30:00.000Z · Thun II 0-0 Münsingen (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
2023-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · Thun II 4-0 Münsingen (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
2023-02-25T15:00:00.000Z · Thun II 2-2 Münsingen (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
2022-08-14T12:30:00.000Z · Thun II 2-2 Münsingen (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Langenthal	10	7	2	1	9	23
2	Schötz	10	6	2	2	13	20
3	Courtételle	10	6	1	3	9	19
4	Concordia Basel	10	5	2	3	7	17
5	Delémont	10	5	2	3	7	17
6	Muttenz	10	5	2	3	4	17
7	Solothurn	10	5	1	4	5	16
8	Grasshopper II	10	5	0	5	-1	15
9	Buochs	10	4	1	5	-2	13
10	Muri-Gümligen	10	4	1	5	-4	13
11	Thun II	10	3	3	4	-3	12
12	FC Wohlen	10	3	3	4	-4	12
13	Bassecourt	10	3	1	6	-9	10
14	Zug	10	3	1	6	-10	10
15	Black Stars	10	1	6	3	-3	9
16	Münsingen	10	0	2	8	-18	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Thun II win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.