Stade Municipal · Analysis updated 12:04 UTC
Thun W vs Sion W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for Thun W and 1.26 for Sion W, a combined total of 3.86. That distribution gives Thun W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Thun W win
66.3% probability
Expected goals
2.60 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thun W home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sion W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thun W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 17% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for Thun W and 1.26 for Sion W, a combined 3.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–16.9%
- 3–06.2%
Recent form
Thun W
- 2026-05-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sion W · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Luzern W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sion W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Luzern W · 0-1 (L)
Sion W
- 2026-05-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Thun W · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-05-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-16T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Luzern W · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Thun W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Yverdon W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AXA Women’s Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Servette Chênois W | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Zürich W | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Young Boys W | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Grasshopper W | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 |
| 5 | Basel W | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Luzern W | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Rapperswil Jona W | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Yverdon W | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | St. Gallen W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
| 10 | Aarau W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Thun W win, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.