TEDA Football Stadium · Referee Ilgiz Tantashev, Uzbekistan · Analysis updated 07:47 UTC
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.33 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Beijing Guoan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tianjin Teda home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Beijing Guoan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beijing Guoan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 35% / 26% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.33 for Beijing Guoan, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Tianjin Teda
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Shenyang Urban · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hangzhou Greentown · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Qingdao Youth Island · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Wuhan Three Towns · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-15T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Beijing Guoan · 2-4 (L)
Beijing Guoan
- 2026-09-15T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Pohang Steelers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:35:00.000Z · A vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Rizhao Yuqi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Dalian Zhixing · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Yunnan Yukun · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 43 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 41 |
| 4 | Shandong Luneng | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 38 |
| 5 | Yunnan Yukun | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | -3 | 38 |
| 6 | Qingdao Youth Island | 27 | 8 | 14 | 5 | -5 | 38 |
| 7 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 36 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 34 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 27 | 7 | 11 | 9 | -5 | 32 |
| 10 | Tianjin Teda | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 31 |
| 11 | Hangzhou Greentown | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 31 |
| 12 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | -11 | 29 |
| 13 | Henan Jianye | 28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | -3 | 28 |
| 14 | Shenyang Urban | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | -13 | 26 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | -7 | 22 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | -22 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.