Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.06 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.40 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 3.46. That distribution gives Tianjin Teda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tianjin Teda win

52.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.06 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tianjin Teda home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yunnan Yukun away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tianjin Teda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 21% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.06 goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.40 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined 3.46 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tianjin Teda win53%

Draw21%

Yunnan Yukun win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

2–19.3%
1–19.1%
2–06.7%
2–26.5%
1–06.5%

Recent form

Tianjin Teda

2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Shenyang Urban · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hangzhou Greentown · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Qingdao Youth Island · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Wuhan Three Towns · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-15T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Beijing Guoan · 2-4 (L)

Yunnan Yukun

2026-10-17T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Chongqing Tongliang Long · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Shenhua · 1-7 (L)
2026-09-06T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Shenyang Urban · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chongqing Tongliang Long · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hangzhou Greentown · 0-6 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chengdu Better City	27	15	7	5	20	52
2	Dalian Zhixing	27	13	4	10	0	43
3	Beijing Guoan	27	12	10	5	19	41
4	Shandong Luneng	27	13	5	9	3	38
5	Yunnan Yukun	27	11	5	11	-3	38
6	Qingdao Youth Island	27	8	14	5	-5	38
7	SHANGHAI SIPG	27	11	8	8	9	36
8	Shanghai Shenhua	27	13	5	9	12	34
9	Chongqing Tongliang Long	27	7	11	9	-5	32
10	Tianjin Teda	28	11	8	9	6	31
11	Hangzhou Greentown	27	10	6	11	0	31
12	Sichuan Jiuniu	27	8	5	14	-11	29
13	Henan Jianye	28	8	10	10	-3	28
14	Shenyang Urban	27	7	5	15	-13	26
15	Wuhan Three Towns	27	5	12	10	-7	22
16	Qingdao Jonoon	27	6	3	18	-22	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tianjin Teda win, at 52.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.