· Analysis updated 17:12 UTC
Tigre Res. vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Tigre Res. and 1.12 for Gimnasia La Plata Res., a combined total of 2.02. That distribution gives Gimnasia La Plata Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.8% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tigre Res. home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia La Plata Res. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnasia La Plata Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 29% / 30% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Tigre Res. and 1.12 for Gimnasia La Plata Res., a combined 2.02 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.8%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–013.3%
- 1–012.0%
- 0–28.3%
Recent form
Tigre Res.
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tucumán Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Godoy Cruz Res. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central Res. · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Córdoba Res. · 0-1 (L)
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigre Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes La Plata Res · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs River Plate Res. · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.