· Analysis updated 15:30 UTC
Tigre Res. vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Tigre Res. and 1.37 for Gimnasia Mendoza 2, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Gimnasia Mendoza 2 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tigre Res. home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimnasia Mendoza 2 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 33% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.21 goals for Tigre Res. and 1.37 for Gimnasia Mendoza 2, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
Tigre Res.
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tucumán Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Godoy Cruz Res. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central Res. · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Córdoba Res. · 0-1 (L)
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
- 2026-08-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs River Plate Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Res. · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Res. · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.