Estadio Jose Dellagiovanna · Referee P. Echavarria · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Tigre vs Banfield Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Tigre and 0.66 for Banfield, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Tigre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tigre win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 0.66
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tigre home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Banfield away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.1%
- 0–013.5%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–18.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.62 (model 64.3% vs market 57.6%, edge +6.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.62 | 57.6% | 64.3% | 1.56 | +6.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 80.7% | 81.6% | 1.23 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 71.0% | 71.6% | 1.40 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 28.3% | 28.4% | 3.52 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.73 | 53.2% | 53.2% | 1.88 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.4% | 18.4% | 5.43 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.95 | 48.4% | 46.8% | 2.14 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.20 | 42.4% | 35.7% | 2.80 | -6.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tigre
- 2026-10-10T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos JRS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Velez Sarsfield · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-2 (L)
Banfield
- 2026-10-10T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Tigre · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-21T00:00:00.000Z · Tigre 0-1 Banfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-08-29T22:00:00.000Z · Tigre 0-1 Banfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-06-26T22:30:00.000Z · Tigre 2-0 Banfield (Copa Argentina)
- 2025-02-25T00:00:00.000Z · Tigre 1-0 Banfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-11-18T20:00:00.000Z · Tigre 1-0 Banfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2023-07-05T20:00:00.000Z · Tigre 1-2 Banfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-06-19T16:00:00.000Z · Tigre 0-1 Banfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2019-02-08T22:00:00.000Z · Tigre 4-4 Banfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2018-01-26T22:00:00.000Z · Tigre 1-2 Banfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2017-04-29T21:20:00.000Z · Tigre 0-1 Banfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tigre win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.