Estadio Jose Dellagiovanna · Referee Pereira·Gonzalo · Analysis updated 23:01 UTC
Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Tigre and 0.70 for Sarmiento Junin, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Tigre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Tigre win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tigre home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sarmiento Junin away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.9%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–010.8%
- 0–110.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.70 (model 64.8% vs market 54.7%, edge +10.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.70 | 54.7% | 64.8% | 1.54 | +10.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.2% | 69.6% | 1.44 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.91 | 47.8% | 48.0% | 2.08 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 30.4% | 30.4% | 3.29 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.20 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 4.63 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 78.5% | 78.4% | 1.28 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.80 | 52.3% | 52.0% | 1.92 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.05 | 45.3% | 35.2% | 2.84 | -10.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tigre
- 2026-10-30T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-24T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos JRS · 1-2 (L)
Sarmiento Junin
- 2026-10-31T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-23T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-19T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs River Plate · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T22:15:00.000Z · Tigre 0-1 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-08-18T20:00:00.000Z · Tigre 0-0 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-01-25T22:00:00.000Z · Tigre 0-0 Sarmiento Junin (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-08-20T19:00:00.000Z · Tigre 0-2 Sarmiento Junin (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-04-14T00:30:00.000Z · Tigre 1-0 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-10-04T22:00:00.000Z · Tigre 2-2 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-01-03T20:10:00.000Z · Tigre 1-1 Sarmiento Junin (Primera Nacional)
- 2019-10-20T23:00:00.000Z · Tigre 1-1 Sarmiento Junin (Primera Nacional)
- 2016-12-09T22:10:00.000Z · Tigre 0-2 Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tigre win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.