· Analysis updated 12:28 UTC
Tigres de Alica vs Zacatepec 1948 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Tigres de Alica and 0.92 for Zacatepec 1948, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Tigres de Alica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tigres de Alica win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tigres de Alica home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zacatepec 1948 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tigres de Alica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 25% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for Tigres de Alica and 0.92 for Zacatepec 1948, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.3%
Recent form
Tigres de Alica
- 2026-08-29T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Zacatepec 1948 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-19T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Zap · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-15T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Zap · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-12T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Los Cabos United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-29T00:00:00.000Z · H vs UA Zacatecas · 3-2 (W)
Zacatepec 1948
- 2026-10-24T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Pioneros de Cancún · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Irapuato · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Reboceros La Piedad · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Cordobés · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · H vs H2O Purepechas · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Premier table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irapuato | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | Racing de Veracruz | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Pioneros de Cancún | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 4 | Celaya | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Reboceros La Piedad | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Tigres de Alica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Deportiva Venados | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Zacatepec 1948 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Chapulineros | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Lobos ULMX | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Los Cabos United | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Montañeses | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Cordobés | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Tapachula | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 6 |
| 16 | H2O Purepechas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Inter Playa del Carmen | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 18 | Tritons Vallarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tigres de Alica win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.