Estadio Metropolitano de Techo · Analysis updated 05:08 UTC
Tigres FC vs Leones FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Tigres FC and 0.53 for Leones FC, a combined total of 2.04. That distribution gives Tigres FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tigres FC win
61.5% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 0.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tigres FC home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leones FC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tigres FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 26% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Tigres FC and 0.53 for Leones FC, a combined 2.04 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.6%
- 2–014.8%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Tigres FC
- 2026-10-04T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional Palmira · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Santander · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Depor FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Bogota FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Orsomarso · 2-0 (W)
Leones FC
- 2026-10-24T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Orsomarso · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Santander · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Patriotas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Magdalena · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-07T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Barranquilla · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tigres FC win, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.