Estadio Metropolitano de Techo · Analysis updated 04:18 UTC
Tigres FC vs Real Cundinamarca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.91 expected goals for Tigres FC and 0.78 for Real Cundinamarca, a combined total of 1.68. That distribution gives Tigres FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.8% probability
Expected goals
0.91 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tigres FC home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Cundinamarca away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tigres FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 34% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.91 goals for Tigres FC and 0.78 for Real Cundinamarca, a combined 1.68 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.6%
- 1–016.9%
- 0–114.4%
- 1–113.1%
- 2–07.6%
Recent form
Tigres FC
- 2026-10-04T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional Palmira · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Santander · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Depor FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Bogota FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Orsomarso · 2-0 (W)
Real Cundinamarca
- 2026-10-02T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Depor FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barranquilla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Quindio · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Magdalena · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional de Bogota · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.