Estadio Metropolitano de Techo · Analysis updated 03:43 UTC
Tigres FC vs Union Magdalena Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Tigres FC and 1.15 for Union Magdalena, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Union Magdalena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.0% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tigres FC home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Union Magdalena away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Magdalena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 27% / 30% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Tigres FC and 1.15 for Union Magdalena, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.6%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–28.9%
Recent form
Tigres FC
- 2026-10-04T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional Palmira · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Santander · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Depor FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Bogota FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Orsomarso · 2-0 (W)
Union Magdalena
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Leones FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Popayan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Santander · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Cartagena · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Fe · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.