· Analysis updated 14:12 UTC
Tigres UANL U21 vs Club Leon U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Tigres UANL U21 and 1.95 for Club Leon U21, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Club Leon U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Club Leon U21 win
55.4% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tigres UANL U21 home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Club Leon U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Club Leon U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 23% / 22% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Tigres UANL U21 and 1.95 for Club Leon U21, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–28.4%
- 1–36.4%
Recent form
Tigres UANL U21
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Puebla U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Juarez U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna U21 · 0-1 (L)
Club Leon U21
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Club America U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Juarez U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Queretaro U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atl. San Luis U21 · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX U21 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca U21 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 40 |
| 2 | Club Leon U21 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 33 |
| 3 | Club America U21 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 21 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 21 |
| 5 | Atl. San Luis U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 6 | Atlante U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 7 | Necaxa U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 8 | Puebla U21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 20 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana U21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Monterrey U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 12 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 19 |
| 14 | Juarez U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 19 |
| 15 | Atlas U21 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -1 | 13 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL U21 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Pachuca U21 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -5 | 12 |
| 18 | Queretaro U21 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Club Leon U21 win, at 55.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.