Tigres UANL U21 vs Toluca U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Tigres UANL U21 and 1.75 for Toluca U21, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Toluca U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Toluca U21 win

55.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.98 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tigres UANL U21 home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Toluca U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toluca U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 21% / 24% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Tigres UANL U21 and 1.75 for Toluca U21, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tigres UANL U21 win21%

Draw24%

Toluca U21 win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

0–111.5%
1–111.2%
0–210.0%
1–29.8%
0–06.6%

Recent form

Tigres UANL U21

2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Puebla U21 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Juarez U21 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey U21 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa U21 · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna U21 · 0-1 (L)

Toluca U21

2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Leon U21 · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana U21 · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atl. San Luis U21 · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL U21 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul U21 · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga MX U21 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Toluca U21	14	13	1	0	24	40
2	Club Leon U21	14	11	0	3	7	33
3	Club America U21	13	7	0	6	3	21
4	Guadalajara Chivas U21	14	7	0	7	-3	21
5	Atl. San Luis U21	14	7	0	7	-4	21
6	Atlante U21	14	7	0	7	-4	21
7	Necaxa U21	14	7	0	7	-4	21
8	Puebla U21	13	6	2	5	3	20
9	Club Tijuana U21	13	6	2	5	-1	20
10	Monterrey U21	13	6	1	6	5	19
11	Cruz Azul U21	13	6	1	6	1	19
12	UNAM Pumas U21	14	6	1	7	0	19
13	Santos Laguna U21	13	6	1	6	-1	19
14	Juarez U21	14	6	1	7	-3	19
15	Atlas U21	13	4	1	8	-1	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	14	4	1	9	-7	13
17	Pachuca U21	13	4	0	9	-5	12
18	Queretaro U21	12	2	0	10	-10	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Toluca U21 win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.