Estadio Universitario · Referee Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava · Analysis updated 09:11 UTC
Tigres UANL vs Leon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Tigres UANL and 0.94 for Leon, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Tigres UANL the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tigres UANL win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tigres UANL home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leon away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–19.9%
- 2–09.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 55.5% vs market 43.5%, edge +12.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 43.5% | 55.5% | 1.80 | +12.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.3% | 71.9% | 1.39 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.70 | 54.5% | 54.9% | 1.82 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 26.6% | 26.8% | 3.73 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 45.0% | 45.1% | 2.22 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.3% | 28.1% | 3.56 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.2% | 73.2% | 1.37 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 56.5% | 44.5% | 2.25 | -12.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tigres UANL
- 2026-10-25T03:10:00.000Z · A vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Leon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T23:07:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Toluca · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Puebla · 1-0 (W)
Leon
- 2026-10-21T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Juarez · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T02:10:00.000Z · A vs Club Queretaro · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-01T01:10:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 2-1 Leon (Liga MX)
- 2025-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 0-0 Leon (Liga MX)
- 2025-02-23T01:00:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 0-1 Leon (Liga MX)
- 2024-09-28T02:00:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 2-2 Leon (Liga MX)
- 2024-01-18T01:00:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 2-1 Leon (Liga MX)
- 2023-07-16T03:05:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 1-0 Leon (Liga MX)
- 2023-05-04T02:00:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 1-3 Leon (CONCACAF Champions League)
- 2023-05-01T01:05:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 0-3 Leon (Liga MX)
- 2023-04-26T02:00:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 2-1 Leon (CONCACAF Champions League)
- 2022-09-11T00:05:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 0-1 Leon (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 27 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 4 | Atlas | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 24 |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 6 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Club Queretaro | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 11 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Puebla | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -24 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tigres UANL win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.