Allianz Field · Referee J. Carlos Rivero · Analysis updated 08:54 UTC
Tigres UANL vs Minnesota United FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Tigres UANL and 1.00 for Minnesota United FC, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Tigres UANL the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tigres UANL win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tigres UANL home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Minnesota United FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tigres UANL to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Tigres UANL and 1.00 for Minnesota United FC, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–06.6%
Recent form
Tigres UANL
- 2026-10-25T03:10:00.000Z · A vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Leon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T23:07:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Toluca · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Puebla · 1-0 (W)
Minnesota United FC
- 2026-10-25T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dynamo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-15T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dynamo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Sounders · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T01:00:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 0-0 Minnesota United FC (Leagues Cup)
Leagues Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Leon | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Club America | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Monterrey | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Chicago Fire | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Real Salt Lake | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Austin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Columbus Crew | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Charlotte | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | FC Cincinnati | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Dallas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | FC Juarez | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 15 | San Diego | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Los Angeles FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 17 | Minnesota United FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 18 | Orlando City SC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 20 | Nashville SC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 21 | Inter Miami | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 22 | New York City FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 23 | Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 24 | Seattle Sounders | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 25 | Philadelphia Union | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 26 | CF Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 27 | Santos Laguna | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | Atlas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Necaxa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 | Atlante FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 31 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 32 | Atletico San Luis | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 33 | Club Queretaro | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 34 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 35 | Club Tijuana | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Puebla | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tigres UANL win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.