Estadio Universitario · Referee Vicente Jassiel Reynoso Arce · Analysis updated 14:08 UTC
Tigres UANL vs Puebla Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Tigres UANL and 0.92 for Puebla, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Tigres UANL the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tigres UANL win
59.9% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tigres UANL home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Puebla away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.4%
- 2–010.7%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 49.0% vs market 45.9%, edge +3.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 45.9% | 49.0% | 2.04 | +3.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.38 | 39.4% | 40.1% | 2.49 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.50 | 59.7% | 59.9% | 1.67 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 17.9% | 18.0% | 5.56 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.4% | 22.1% | 4.52 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 82.3% | 82.0% | 1.22 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.2% | 77.9% | 1.28 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.1% | 51.0% | 1.96 | -3.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tigres UANL
- 2026-09-27T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Puebla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T03:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Juarez · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T01:10:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna · 0-0 (D)
Puebla
- 2026-10-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Leon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlante FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Toluca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Necaxa · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-05T01:00:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 1-3 Puebla (Liga MX)
- 2025-08-09T03:00:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 7-0 Puebla (Liga MX)
- 2025-04-05T03:05:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 0-0 Puebla (Liga MX)
- 2024-10-05T23:00:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 1-0 Puebla (Liga MX)
- 2024-08-01T01:30:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 2-1 Puebla (Leagues Cup)
- 2024-03-30T01:00:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 3-2 Puebla (Liga MX)
- 2023-12-04T02:10:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 3-0 Puebla (Liga MX)
- 2023-12-01T01:10:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 2-2 Puebla (Liga MX)
- 2023-07-02T01:00:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 1-1 Puebla (Liga MX)
- 2023-05-08T03:10:00.000Z · Tigres UANL 1-0 Puebla (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Toluca | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 22 |
| 5 | Leon | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 21 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Club Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | Atletico San Luis | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 9 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tigres UANL win, at 59.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.