Estadio Caliente · Referee C. Sanchez · Analysis updated 06:05 UTC
Tijuana W vs Monterrey W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Tijuana W and 3.26 for Monterrey W, a combined total of 4.48. That distribution gives Monterrey W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Monterrey W win
76.8% probability
Expected goals
1.21 – 3.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tijuana W home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monterrey W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–38.0%
- 1–27.3%
- 0–36.6%
- 1–46.5%
- 0–26.1%
Recent form
Tijuana W
- 2026-09-27T01:06:00.000Z · A vs Juárez W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:06:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca W · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-06T01:06:00.000Z · H vs Pachuca W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T21:45:00.000Z · A vs América W · 1-3 (L)
Monterrey W
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa W · 10-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:07:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Toluca W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Querétaro W · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T03:10:00.000Z · Tijuana W 1-2 Monterrey W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2026-02-07T02:00:00.000Z · Tijuana W 0-2 Monterrey W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2025-10-11T03:00:00.000Z · Tijuana W 1-4 Monterrey W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2025-02-03T01:10:00.000Z · Tijuana W 1-1 Monterrey W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2024-11-04T03:10:00.000Z · Tijuana W 0-2 Monterrey W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2024-03-29T03:00:00.000Z · Tijuana W 1-3 Monterrey W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2023-11-14T03:05:00.000Z · Tijuana W 3-6 Monterrey W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2023-11-11T00:06:00.000Z · Tijuana W 1-2 Monterrey W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2023-09-04T02:06:00.000Z · Tijuana W 1-1 Monterrey W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2023-05-23T03:00:00.000Z · Tijuana W 1-6 Monterrey W (Liga MX Femenil)
Liga MX Femenil table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monterrey W | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 30 |
| 2 | América W | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 28 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL W | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 28 |
| 4 | Guadalajara W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 24 |
| 5 | Juárez W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 6 | Toluca W | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 7 | Atlético San Luis W | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM W | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | León W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Santos Laguna W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 16 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul W | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 12 | Atlas W | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | Tijuana W | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Pachuca W | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -2 | 10 |
| 15 | Atlante W | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Querétaro W | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -14 | 6 |
| 17 | Puebla W | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -26 | 4 |
| 18 | Necaxa W | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -42 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Monterrey W win, at 76.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.