Gradski Stadion Kavadarci · Analysis updated 06:31 UTC
Tikveš vs Aresimi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.78 expected goals for Tikveš and 0.66 for Aresimi, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Tikveš the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tikveš win
81.3% probability
Expected goals
2.78 – 0.66
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tikveš home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aresimi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.4%
- 3–011.5%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–18.2%
- 4–08.0%
Recent form
Tikveš
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkendija · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vardar Skopje · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Skopje · 1-1 (D)
Aresimi
- 2026-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mogila · 12-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Struga · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shkendija · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vardar Skopje · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Skopje · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-24T15:00:00.000Z · Tikveš 5-1 Aresimi (First League)
- 2026-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · Tikveš 1-1 Aresimi (First League)
- 2026-03-04T13:00:00.000Z · Tikveš 5-0 Aresimi (First League)
- 2025-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · Tikveš 3-4 Aresimi (First League)
- 2023-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · Tikveš 2-1 Aresimi (Cup)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 2 | Struga | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 17 |
| 5 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 6 | Sileks | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -13 | 10 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tikveš win, at 81.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.