· Analysis updated 06:23 UTC
Tikveš vs Bashkimi Kumanovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.07 expected goals for Tikveš and 0.63 for Bashkimi Kumanovo, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Tikveš the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tikveš win
85.1% probability
Expected goals
3.07 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tikveš home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bashkimi Kumanovo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
15%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–011.9%
- 2–011.7%
- 4–09.2%
- 1–07.6%
- 3–17.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 1.10 | 84.7% | 85.1% | 1.18 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 9.50 | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.80 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.33 | 71.0% | 71.0% | 1.41 | 0.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 3.25 | 29.0% | 29.0% | 3.45 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 6.50 | 15.4% | 14.9% | 6.71 | -0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 17.00 | 5.5% | 4.7% | 21.28 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.04 | 96.2% | 89.8% | 1.11 | -6.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tikveš
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Aresimi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bregalnica Štip · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Krosu Sport Bitola · 13-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Rabotnicki · 1-1 (D)
Bashkimi Kumanovo
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tikveš · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sileks · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gjilani · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Drita · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · Tikveš 5-0 Bashkimi Kumanovo (First League)
- 2026-04-02T10:30:00.000Z · Tikveš 2-2 Bashkimi Kumanovo (First League)
- 2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z · Tikveš 0-2 Bashkimi Kumanovo (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-11-23T12:00:00.000Z · Tikveš 3-0 Bashkimi Kumanovo (First League)
- 2025-08-25T15:00:00.000Z · Tikveš 1-3 Bashkimi Kumanovo (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Struga | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 20 |
| 5 | Sileks | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -14 | 10 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -22 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tikveš win, at 85.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.