· Analysis updated 14:18 UTC
Tikveš vs Skopje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Tikveš and 0.73 for Skopje, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Tikveš the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Tikveš win
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tikveš home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Skopje away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 2–013.0%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–08.0%
Recent form
Tikveš
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkendija · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vardar Skopje · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Skopje · 1-1 (D)
Skopje
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Shkendija · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vardar Skopje · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bregalnica Štip · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · Tikveš 1-1 Skopje (First League)
- 2025-09-10T13:30:00.000Z · Tikveš 1-0 Skopje (Cup)
- 2023-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · Tikveš 4-0 Skopje (First League)
- 2023-02-26T13:00:00.000Z · Tikveš 0-0 Skopje (First League)
- 2022-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · Tikveš 2-0 Skopje (First League)
- 2022-04-17T14:00:00.000Z · Tikveš 2-1 Skopje (First League)
- 2022-03-05T13:00:00.000Z · Tikveš 3-0 Skopje (First League)
- 2021-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · Tikveš 1-2 Skopje (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 2 | Struga | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 17 |
| 5 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 6 | Sileks | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -13 | 10 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tikveš win, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.