· Analysis updated 19:27 UTC
Tilikratis vs Aris Filiates Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Tilikratis and 1.10 for Aris Filiates, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Tilikratis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tilikratis home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aris Filiates away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tilikratis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 28% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Tilikratis and 1.10 for Aris Filiates, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
Tilikratis
- 2026-10-25T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Pallixouriakos · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panagriniakos · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panegialios · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Agios Matthaios · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lefkimmi · 1-0 (W)
Aris Filiates
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Agios Matthaios · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tilikratis · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Trikala · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Stavros · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Elassona · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makedonikos Siatista | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Veria | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 3 | Anagennisi Artas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Eordaikos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Alexandros Florinas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Doxa Mascholouriou | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Kastoria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Naousa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | PAS Giannina | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 10 | Thyella Katsikas | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 11 | Vatolakkos | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.