· Analysis updated 16:02 UTC
Tilikratis vs Panagriniakos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Tilikratis and 1.17 for Panagriniakos, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Tilikratis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Tilikratis win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Panagriniakos away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tilikratis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Tilikratis and 1.17 for Panagriniakos, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Tilikratis
Panagriniakos
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panachaiki FC · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Preveza · 0-2 (L)
- 2023-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pamisos Messini · 1-2 (L)
- 2023-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trikala · 6-3 (W)
- 2023-04-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Asteras Petriti · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2023-03-11T13:00:00.000Z · Tilikratis 4-1 Panagriniakos (Gamma Ethniki - Group 3)
- 2022-12-11T13:00:00.000Z · Tilikratis 3-0 Panagriniakos (Gamma Ethniki - Group 3)
- 2022-02-20T13:00:00.000Z · Tilikratis 0-2 Panagriniakos (Gamma Ethniki - Group 4)
- 2021-11-28T13:00:00.000Z · Tilikratis 2-0 Panagriniakos (Gamma Ethniki - Group 4)
- 2021-06-06T14:00:00.000Z · Tilikratis 0-1 Panagriniakos (Gamma Ethniki - Group 5)
Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atromitos Patras | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 9 |
| 2 | Preveza | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 3 | Panegialios | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Panachaiki FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 5 | Plataria | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Aris Filiates | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Agios Matthaios | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 8 | Tilikratis | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Lefkimmi | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 10 | Panagriniakos | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 11 | Pallixouriakos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 12 | Levante | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tilikratis win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.