· Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Tillmitsch vs Gleisdorf 09 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for Tillmitsch and 1.19 for Gleisdorf 09, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Tillmitsch the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tillmitsch win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tillmitsch home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gleisdorf 09 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tillmitsch to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 22% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.01 goals for Tillmitsch and 1.19 for Gleisdorf 09, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–08.2%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Tillmitsch
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gleisdorf 09 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalsdorf · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Hartberg (Am) · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Weiz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Allerheiligen · 2-4 (L)
Gleisdorf 09
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tillmitsch · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Hartberg (Am) · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Allerheiligen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deutschlandsberger SC · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Velden | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Treibach | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Austria Klagenfurt | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 4 | Deutschlandsberger SC | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Völkermarkt | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 17 |
| 6 | Weiz | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 7 | Kalsdorf | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Wolfsberger AC | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | SV Lafnitz | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Allerheiligen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 11 | Tillmitsch | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Bleiburg | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Gleisdorf 09 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 14 | Hartberg (Am) | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Wolfsberg | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -18 | 7 |
| 16 | Donau Klagenfurt | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tillmitsch win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.