Tillmitsch vs SV Lafnitz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.17 expected goals for Tillmitsch and 1.96 for SV Lafnitz, a combined total of 4.12. That distribution gives Tillmitsch the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.17 – 1.96

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tillmitsch home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SV Lafnitz away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tillmitsch to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 20% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.17 goals for Tillmitsch and 1.96 for SV Lafnitz, a combined 4.12 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tillmitsch win44%

Draw20%

SV Lafnitz win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals59%

Both teams to score76%

Correct score

2–17.4%
2–27.3%
1–16.9%
1–26.7%
3–15.4%

Recent form

Tillmitsch

2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gleisdorf 09 · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalsdorf · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Hartberg (Am) · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Weiz · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Allerheiligen · 2-4 (L)

SV Lafnitz

2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tillmitsch · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hartberg (Am) · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiz · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Allerheiligen · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Deutschlandsberger SC · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Velden	13	7	5	1	8	26
2	Treibach	13	7	2	4	8	23
3	Austria Klagenfurt	13	7	2	4	4	23
4	Deutschlandsberger SC	12	6	4	2	6	22
5	Völkermarkt	12	6	2	4	11	20
6	Kalsdorf	12	5	4	3	4	19
7	Weiz	12	4	6	2	4	18
8	SV Lafnitz	12	4	6	2	2	18
9	Wolfsberger AC	12	5	3	4	2	18
10	Tillmitsch	12	3	5	4	-1	14
11	Hartberg (Am)	12	3	4	5	-5	13
12	Allerheiligen	12	3	3	6	-1	12
13	Gleisdorf 09	12	3	2	7	-9	11
14	Wolfsberg	13	2	5	6	-17	11
15	Bleiburg	13	2	4	7	-6	10
16	Donau Klagenfurt	13	1	5	7	-10	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.