· Analysis updated 04:42 UTC
Timişul Şag vs Universitatea Alba Iulia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Timişul Şag and 0.70 for Universitatea Alba Iulia, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Timişul Şag the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Timişul Şag win
60.2% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Timişul Şag home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Universitatea Alba Iulia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Timişul Şag to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 24% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Timişul Şag and 0.70 for Universitatea Alba Iulia, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 2–013.0%
- 1–111.0%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.1%
Recent form
Timişul Şag
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Unirea Alba Iulia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Pecica · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Metalurgistul Cugir · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cetate Deva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii · 2-0 (W)
Universitatea Alba Iulia
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CIL Blaj · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Pecica · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Sântana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Unirea DMO · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unirea Alba Iulia | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 23 |
| 2 | Timişul Şag | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Cetate Deva | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | CIL Blaj | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Viitorul Arad | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Unirea Sântana | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 8 | Metalurgistul Cugir | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Progresul Pecica | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 10 | Poli Timisoara 2 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 7 |
| 11 | Universitatea Alba Iulia | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
| 12 | Nera Bogodinţi | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Timişul Şag win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.