Chonburi Daikin Stadium · Referee H. Choi · Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Timor-Leste vs Indonesia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Timor-Leste and 2.35 for Indonesia, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Indonesia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Indonesia win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 2.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Timor-Leste home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Indonesia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 20% / 19% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Timor-Leste and 2.35 for Indonesia, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–17.9%
- 1–37.3%
- 0–27.2%
- 0–16.1%
Recent form
Timor-Leste
- 2026-09-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Myanmar · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Cambodia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-31T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Indonesia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam · 0-7 (L)
Indonesia
- 2026-09-28T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Malaysia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Singapore · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-31T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Timor-Leste · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
ASEAN Championship table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Indonesia win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.