Timor-Leste vs Tajikistan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for Timor-Leste and 2.46 for Tajikistan, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Tajikistan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tajikistan win

75.0% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.74 – 2.46

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Timor-Leste home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tajikistan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 9% / 16% / 75% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.74 goals for Timor-Leste and 2.46 for Tajikistan, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 48%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Timor-Leste win9%

Draw16%

Tajikistan win75%

Double chance 1X

25%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

91%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

0–212.3%
0–310.1%
0–110.0%
1–29.1%
1–37.5%

Recent form

Timor-Leste

2026-09-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Myanmar · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Cambodia · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-31T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Indonesia · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam · 0-7 (L)

Tajikistan

2026-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestine · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Azerbaijan · 0-1 (L)
2026-06-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs India · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs India · 3-1 (W)
2026-03-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Philippines · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Asian Cup - Qualification table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tajikistan	6	4	2	0	11	14
2	Philippines	6	4	2	0	10	14
3	Maldives	6	1	0	5	-10	3
4	Timor-Leste	6	1	0	5	-11	3
1	Yemen	6	4	2	0	19	14
2	Lebanon	6	4	1	1	12	13
3	Bhutan	6	1	1	4	-12	4
4	Brunei	6	1	0	5	-19	3
1	Singapore	6	4	2	0	4	14
2	Hong Kong	6	2	2	2	0	8
3	Bangladesh	6	1	2	3	-2	5
4	India	6	1	2	3	-2	5
1	Thailand	6	5	0	1	11	15
2	Turkmenistan	6	4	0	2	4	12
3	Sri Lanka	6	3	0	3	-1	9
4	Chinese Taipei	6	0	0	6	-14	0
1	Syria	6	6	0	0	19	18
2	Myanmar	6	4	0	2	-3	12
3	Afghanistan	6	0	2	4	-7	2
4	Pakistan	6	0	2	4	-9	2
1	Vietnam	6	6	0	0	15	18
2	Malaysia	6	3	0	3	0	9
3	Laos	6	2	0	4	-12	6
4	Nepal	6	1	0	5	-3	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tajikistan win, at 75.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.