· Analysis updated 09:56 UTC
Tirol U20 vs Alianca U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Tirol U20 and 0.98 for Alianca U20, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Tirol U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tirol U20 win
62.7% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tirol U20 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alianca U20 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tirol U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 20% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Tirol U20 and 0.98 for Alianca U20, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–19.6%
- 3–07.1%
Recent form
Tirol U20
- 2026-08-21T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ceará U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-08T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Ceará U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-31T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Anjos do Céu U20 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Anjos do Céu U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza U20 · 1-1 (D)
Alianca U20
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vila Real FC U20 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Anjos do Céu U20 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-07-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Tirol U20 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiangua CE U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Caucaia U20 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-03T18:30:00.000Z · Tirol U20 5-0 Alianca U20 (Cearense U20)
- 2025-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · Tirol U20 2-0 Alianca U20 (Cearense U20)
- 2024-07-13T18:00:00.000Z · Tirol U20 0-1 Alianca U20 (Cearense U20)
- 2024-06-21T18:00:00.000Z · Tirol U20 4-1 Alianca U20 (Cearense U20)
Cearense U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real FC U20 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Ceará U20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tirol U20 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 4 | Caucaia U20 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 5 | Horizonte U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 6 | Anjos do Céu U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 7 | Tiangua CE U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Quixadá U20 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Ferroviario U20 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 9 |
| 3 | Atlético Cearense U20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Fortaleza U20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 5 | Floresta CE U20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Alianca U20 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 7 | Juazeiro EC U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tirol U20 win, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.