Estadio Abel Alves de Figueiredo · Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Tirsense vs Brito Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.55 expected goals for Tirsense and 0.84 for Brito, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Tirsense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tirsense win
74.3% probability
Expected goals
2.55 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tirsense home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brito away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 3–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.6%
- 3–17.8%
Recent form
Tirsense
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mafra · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brito · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Celoricense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vinhais · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rebordosa · 1-0 (W)
Brito
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chaves II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vila Pouca · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tirsense · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maria da Fonte · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Montalegre · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-07T15:00:00.000Z · Tirsense 1-1 Brito (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A)
- 2025-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · Tirsense 1-2 Brito (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A)
- 2025-03-02T15:00:00.000Z · Tirsense 0-1 Brito (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A)
- 2024-11-24T11:00:00.000Z · Tirsense 1-0 Brito (Taça de Portugal)
- 2024-11-03T15:00:00.000Z · Tirsense 3-1 Brito (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A)
- 2024-02-25T15:00:00.000Z · Tirsense 0-2 Brito (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A)
- 2023-11-01T15:00:00.000Z · Tirsense 1-1 Brito (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A)
- 2023-02-19T15:00:00.000Z · Tirsense 0-1 Brito (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A)
- 2022-11-06T15:00:00.000Z · Tirsense 0-1 Brito (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A)
- 2021-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · Tirsense 3-2 Brito (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chaves II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | SC Braga B | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Os Limianos | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Bragança | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Tirsense | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Montalegre | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Vila Meã | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Celoricense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Rebordosa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Ponte da Barca | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 11 | Maria da Fonte | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 12 | Brito | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 13 | Maia Lidador | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 14 | Vinhais | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tirsense win, at 74.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.