· Analysis updated 06:28 UTC
Tishreen vs Shorta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Tishreen and 0.52 for Shorta, a combined total of 1.02. That distribution gives Shorta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 28%, with the draw at 46%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 8% for over 2.5 goals and 16% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 36%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 28% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw
46.1% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 0.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shorta away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 26% / 46% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.50 goals for Tishreen and 0.52 for Shorta, a combined 1.02 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 8% and both teams to score at 16%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 36%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
54%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–036.1%
- 0–118.8%
- 1–018.0%
- 1–19.4%
- 0–24.9%
Recent form
Tishreen
Shorta
- 2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Horriya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Omaya SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Wahda · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Karama · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-06-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Shouleh · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Karama | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Shorta | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Al Ittihad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Damascus Al-Ahli | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Al Wahda | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Jaish | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Qamishli | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Nawaeir | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Hottin | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Wathba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Al Taliya | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Tishreen | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Horriya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 14 | Foutoua | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 16% and over 2.5 goals at 8%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.