Tiszafuredi VSE vs Salgótarjáni BTC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Tiszafuredi VSE and 0.88 for Salgótarjáni BTC, a combined total of 1.86. That distribution gives Tiszafuredi VSE the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.98 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tiszafuredi VSE home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Salgótarjáni BTC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tiszafuredi VSE to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 32% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Tiszafuredi VSE and 0.88 for Salgótarjáni BTC, a combined 1.86 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Tiszafuredi VSE win37%

Draw32%

Salgótarjáni BTC win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals56%

Over 2.5 goals29%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

0–015.5%
1–015.3%
0–113.7%
1–113.4%
2–07.5%

Recent form

Tiszafuredi VSE

2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mátészalka · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Gödöllő · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kisvárda II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Debrecen II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyiregyhaza II · 2-1 (W)

Salgótarjáni BTC

2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs DEAC · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Füzesabony · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarpa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Diósgyőr II · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NB III - Northeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ózd Sajóvölgye	12	10	0	2	28	30
2	Cigand SE	12	9	2	1	22	29
3	DEAC	12	8	2	2	17	26
4	Debrecen II	12	7	1	4	9	22
5	Kisvárda II	12	5	6	1	7	21
6	Diósgyőr II	12	5	4	3	6	19
7	Gödöllő	12	6	1	5	4	19
8	Mátészalka	12	4	5	3	2	17
9	Eger	12	5	2	5	-11	17
10	Tiszaújváros	12	5	1	6	-3	16
11	Füzesabony	12	5	1	6	-3	16
12	Tiszafuredi VSE	12	3	1	8	-12	10
13	Hajdúnánás	12	3	1	8	-18	10
14	Salgótarjáni BTC	12	3	0	9	-12	9
15	Tarpa	12	3	0	9	-16	9
16	Nyiregyhaza II	12	1	1	10	-20	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.