· Analysis updated 06:17 UTC
Tiszaújváros vs Diósgyőr II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Tiszaújváros and 1.60 for Diósgyőr II, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives Diósgyőr II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.7% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tiszaújváros home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Diósgyőr II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–18.0%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
Tiszaújváros
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gödöllő · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kisvárda II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Karancslapujtő · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Debrecen II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyiregyhaza II · 3-2 (W)
Diósgyőr II
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ózd Sajóvölgye · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Eger · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs DEAC · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Füzesabony · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salgótarjáni BTC · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-01T10:00:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 3-1 Diósgyőr II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2025-08-10T15:30:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 2-1 Diósgyőr II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2024-11-27T12:00:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 1-0 Diósgyőr II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2024-08-07T15:30:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 1-0 Diósgyőr II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2023-11-26T10:00:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 3-4 Diósgyőr II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2023-08-02T15:30:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 2-0 Diósgyőr II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2023-03-29T14:00:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 2-0 Diósgyőr II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2022-09-25T09:00:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 0-3 Diósgyőr II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2022-03-06T10:00:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 4-2 Diósgyőr II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2021-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 1-1 Diósgyőr II (NB III - Northeast)
NB III - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ózd Sajóvölgye | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 30 |
| 2 | Cigand SE | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 29 |
| 3 | DEAC | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 26 |
| 4 | Debrecen II | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Kisvárda II | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 21 |
| 6 | Diósgyőr II | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 7 | Gödöllő | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 8 | Mátészalka | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Eger | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 17 |
| 10 | Tiszaújváros | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 | Füzesabony | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | Tiszafuredi VSE | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 10 |
| 13 | Hajdúnánás | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 10 |
| 14 | Salgótarjáni BTC | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 9 |
| 15 | Tarpa | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -16 | 9 |
| 16 | Nyiregyhaza II | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -20 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.